ジム・クレイマー氏に学ぶ：GARP(Growth at a Reasonable Price)株を狙え

2022年4月放送のMad Moneyで、GARP(Growth at a Reasonable Price)株に関するエピソードが、業種別に4日続けて取り上げられたので、まとめて復習したいと思います。

1.　GARP(Growth at a Reasonable Price)

1.1　GARP(Growth at a Reasonable Price)とは

本題に入る前に、GARPとは何かについて簡単に説明すると、「Growth at Reasonable Price」の略で、成長株（Growth株）のうちでも比較的割安な銘柄を指すようです。

GARPについて詳しく知りたい人はこちらをご覧ください。→ Investopia: Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)

1.2　クレイマー氏のとった選出方法

ジム・クレイマー氏のMad Moneyでは、2022年4月11日(月)～14日(木）の4日間にわたって、合計22銘柄のGARP株の紹介がありました。

S&P 500銘柄のうち、以下の2つの条件を満たすものが51銘柄あったそうなのですが、その中から4業種に絞って紹介したとのことでした。

  • 成長性：今年および翌年の収益の伸びが2桁以上（2 digit earnings growth in this year and the next year）
  • 割安性：PEGレシオ (price/earnings growth ratio) が1倍以下　→　数字が小さいほど割安

以下２～5でクレイマー氏が紹介した上記の条件を満たす銘柄を紹介します。尚、下の各表の右側の3列（(注)と示してあります）は、各銘柄のYahoo！Financeの「Statistics」ページからの抜粋です。クレイマ―氏の数字とは若干基準が違うので数字も異なっていますが、簡単に利用できる数字として参考までに記載してみました。「earnings growth」については載っていなかったので代わりに Forward P/Eを記載しました。

2.　旅行関連銘柄

2022年4月11日放送：Jim Cramer says he likes these 6 travel and leisure GARP stocks (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/jim-cramer-says-he-likes-these-6-travel-and-leisure-garp-stocks.html)

会社名Tickerクレイマ―氏のコメントForward P/E (注)PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)(注)Data as of (注)
Expedia GroupEXPEThis year, EXPE should finally get almost back to 2019’s revenue levels, with higher profitability. You are getting remarkable growth rate even though EXPE stock currently sells for 24 times in this year’s earning estimate. 26.450.974/10/2022
Booking HoldingsBKNGFormerly known as Priceline. It also owns Open table for restaurant reservation. BKNG reported revenue of $11b in 2021, an increase of 61% from the year prior. BKNG is more internationally oriented, with exposure to emerging markets in Asia & Latin America. 24.880.684/11/2022
Marriott InternationalMARFor 4Q ’21, MAR reported sales of $4.45b and EPS of $1.30, both above estimates. MAR added more than 86K rooms globally in 2021, including roughly 43K rooms in international market. Marriott is on the expensive side (traded just under 30 times earnings), but it passes the GARP test thanks to its rebound earnings growth.29.411.074/10/2022
Walt DisneyDISCharitable Trust owns DIS. DIS is -30% in the last year. Bank of America raised rating for DIS. With travel coming back and its Disney+ investments, 2022 is set to be a huge earnings year for Disney. The next move would be a buy.30.771.034/10/2022
DardenDRIDRI reported 3Q’21 EPS of $1.93 vs $2.1 expected. With revenue & comparable-store sales also below forecasts. 17 times earnings and 3.5% yields. DRI got hit by Omicron & Food inflation, but if both ease, Darden can take share & take names. 15.551.214/15/2022
SyscoSYYSYY is +5% in the last year. Sells just under 20% times earnings.19.960.614/10/2022

3.　金融関連銘柄

2022年4月12日放送：CNBC’s Jim Cramer says these four financial GARP stocks are investable (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/cnbcs-jim-cramer-says-these-four-financial-garp-stocks-are-investable.html)

会社名Tickerクレイマー氏のコメントForward P/E (注)PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)(注)Data as of (注)
Signature BankSBNYSignature Bank Operates through commercial banking and specialty finance segments. SSNY sells for 13x earnings, which I think is enticing given its growth rate. Signature has a ton of interest rate sensitivity which makes it more attractive with the Fed on the warpath. Signature uses a blockchain-based intrabank payment solution that allows for real time crypto payments. Morgan Stanley said SBNY is well positioned for rising rates, while Bank of America maintained its buy rating. 12.59N/A4/10/2022
State StreetSTTAt the end of FY ’21, State Street reported as record $43.6 t assets under custody or management. STT will acquire Brown Brothers Harriman’s Investors Service Biz for $3.5b, the Co.’s largest acquisition since 2007. In 2021, STT reported recorded servicing fees +7% and fee revenue +5% year-over-year. I think State Street is Unreasonably cheap and I like it ahead of earnings on Thursday.9.121.204/13/2022
Bank of New York MellonBKI think Bank of New York Mellon’s aggressive pullback, like State Street’s, is an overreaction. Until we know who has the first custodial crypto platform, I think you’re find owning either STT or BK.10.431.174/10/2022
Charles Schwab SCHWCharles Schwab acquired TB Ameritrade in October 2020, shelling out $26b in an all-stock deal. If you think the Fed will relentlessly raise interest rates, Schwab is a huge winner. SCHW’s earnings are expected to increase 26% compound annual growth rate over the next two years yet it’s stock sells for less than 20 times earnings the price earnings.21.100.974/13/2022

4.　半導体銘柄

2022年4月13日放送：Jim Cramer names 7 beaten-down semiconductor stocks that look ‘enticing’ (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/cramer-names-7-beaten-down-semiconductor-stocks-that-look-enticing.html)

会社名Tickerクレイマ―氏のコメントForward P/E (注)PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)(注)Data as of (注)
Western DigitalWDCStock come down nearly 40% from its highs last summer. The company is still on track to rack up 76% earnings growth this year and more than 20% earnings growth next year. I think Wall Street believes that WDC will have to cut its earnings estimates and that’s why WDC only trades at a 5 times next year’s earnings.4.980.314/11/2022
Micron MUMicron has similarities to WDC, but its better run and has a stronger mix of businesses. For Fiscal 2Q ’22, Micron reported sales of $7.79b, which beat estimates of $7.53b. I think the Micron worrywarts are focused on the wrong thing. Traded 7.5 times earnings. It’s a steal down here.7.730.914/11/2022
AMDAMDUnder the leadership of Lisa Su, AMD has become a CPU and graphics processor powerhouse. Stock’s been hit hard in recent months and plunging more than 40% from its peak in late November. Cramer’s charitable trust owns AMD. The problem with AMD is that it used to be a fairly expensive stock late last year. If you don’t already own AMD, I like it on weakness here.24.941.294/10/2022
Skyworks SolutionsSWKSSkyworks makes chips for wireless connectivity, and gets 2/3 of its sales from teh mobile business. I’, sick of having to defend Skyworks – it;s a well-run company with an incredible track record. Skyworks has been hit because investors are worried about short-term Chinese supply disruptions. But long-term this is a terrific company with a stock that trades just over ten times earnings. The last two times Skyworks got this cheap, those turned out to be fabulous buying opportunities. 10.580.874/10/2022
KLA CorporationKLAI don’t see the semiconductor capital equipment plays taking much of a hit from a slowdown economy14.601.374/10/2022
Lam ResearchLRCXSame above.12.240.904/11/2022
Applied MaterialsAMATSame above.14.561.784/10/2022

5.　工業銘柄

2022年4月14日放送：Jim Cramer says investors should have these 5 industrial stocks on their wish lists (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/jim-cramer-says-investors-should-have-these-5-industrial-stocks-on-their-wish-lists.html)

会社名Tickerクレイマ―氏のコメントForward P/E (注)PEG Ratio (5 yr expected) (注)Data as of (注)
General ElectricGEGE operates in several markets, with Power, Renewable Energy, Aviation, Healthcare and Financial Services segments. GE reported a mixed 4Q ’21 and delivered guidance below Street expectations for 2022. I actually like GE’s end markets. GE will spin off its healthcare business in 2023, then the combined renewable Energy, Power & Digital Business in 2024.27.321.074/11/2022
United RentalsURIUnited is the world’s largest equipment company, offering customers access to approx. 4,300 classes of equipment. Analysis say that rental demand will wane, but I don’t see much evidence that supply chain problems are fixed.12.111.184/10/2022
Howmet AerospaceHWMHowmet spun off of Arconic in 2019, which was spun off of Alcoa in 2016. The earnings are rising at 35% compound annual growth over the next 2 years, its’ a steal at 25% earning. Howmet Aerospace is a provider of advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. In its most recent quarter, 61% of HWM’s revenue came from aerospace markets24.690.804/10/2022
TxtronTXTTXT reported an overall top and bottom line miss for its most recent quarter, with certain lines above expectations. Between Textron’s private jet and defense businesses, I think there’s plenty of reason to own it. TXT got a 20% growth rate and the stock trades at 17 times earnings.15.310.964/11/2022
Johnson ControlsJCI36% of JCI’s revenue in 2021 came from its products with service & installation contributing the remainder. Deutsche Bank upgraded JCI last month, citing its limited exposure to Russia & China and HVAC industry strength. JCI should be able to put up 23% earnings growth this year and the stock trades at 19 times. 19.421.354/11/2022

6.（おまけ）E*Tradeの株式銘柄選択ツールを使ってGARP銘柄を探す

E*Tradeの株式銘柄選択ツールを使ってGARP銘柄を探す方法を以前紹介したのですが、せっかくなので参考までに再掲します。

「アメリカ投資入門：E*Tradeの株式銘柄選択ツールを使いこなす」という記事ですが、「4.1.3　GARP (Growth at Reasonable Price)の見つけ方の例」が該当部分です。以下のような条件を利用するとGARPに相当する銘柄を探すことができるようです。

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Jun Kurema (暮眞★潤)

アメリカ（ニューヨーク）に住み始めて19年目です。株式投資、インターネット活動を通して自宅で安定収入を得ることを目指しています。 ▶ 詳しいプロフィールはこちらから。 ********************** I am a Japanese, residing in the US. I am trying to find a way to earn stable income at home through investments in stocks or other products as well as some sort of internet business. ▶ More detailed profile can be viewed from here.

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