E*Tradeのオンラインセミナー「Fibonacci Chart Analysis（2021年7月14日開催）」の受講メモです。E*Tradeが提供しているテクニカル分析関連のセミナーはとりあえずこれで一段落しました。
目次
0. 受講したセミナー
主催：E*Trade
タイトル：「Fibonacci Chart Analysis」
セミナー開催日：2021年7月14日
オンラインセミナーのアドレス：https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/fibonacci-chart-analysis-071421
サマリー：Fibonacci analysis is based on the surprising characteristics of the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, and the related “golden ratio.” See how the relationships are applied to stock charts.
セミナー受講メモということで英語のままになっています。
実際のプレゼンテーションマテリアルは、チャートを多用していますがそれらは以下に含まれていないので見づらいと思います。以下の記事でも紹介しましたが、E*TradeのセミナーはE*Tradeに口座を持っていない人でも聴講可能なので、興味のある人は実際のセミナーを聴講してみてください。
1. Introduction to Fibonacci numbers
1.1 The Fibonacci Number Sequence
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233…
| Addition (creates sequence) | Division 1 (any number in the sequence divided by the next higher number is equal to 0.618) | Division 2 (any number in the sequence divided by the next lower number is equal to 1.618) | And finally, the squares! |
13 + 21 = 34 21 + 34 = 55 34 + 55 = 89 55 + 89 = 144 | 13/21 = 0.619 21/34 = 0.618 34/55 = 0.618 55/89 = 0.618 | 21/13 = 1.615 34/21 = 1.619 55/34 = 1.618 89/55 = 1.618 | 1.618^2 = 1.618 + 1 0.618^2 = 1 – 0.618 |
1.2 Golden Ratio
Golden Ratio = 61.8%
2. Fibonacci Retracement
2.1 Fibonacci retracement for support and resistance
look at significant move
identify the low and the high — the distance from low to high are support and registance
if we define the distance from the low to high as 100%, that would be considered as 100% retracement
61.8% = Fibonacci retracement support level
50.0% = another retracement level (key trader retracement level), always include 50% level as Fibonacci support level
38.2% = Fibonacci retracement support level
those support level will be automatically drawn
2.2 Fibonacci retracement for support and resistance Price target projection
3. Fibonacci Fan
3.1 Fibonacci fan for support and resistance
Fib Fans
- Start at the low and end at the high
- Drop a vertical line from the end point (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%)
- Mark Fib retracements on the vertical
- Strike lines from the start point through each Fib intersection
3.2 Fibonacci fan for support and resistance Price target projection
Consider limiting Fib fan projections to 2-3X the time span of the initial low-high line.
Mirror-image fan lines also projected below the 100% retracement
4. Fibonacci Arc
4.1 Fibonacci arc for support and resistance
Fib Arcs
- Start at the low and end at the high
- Mark Fib retracements along the low-high line
- Strike an arc from the high through each Fib intersection
4.2 Fibonacci fan for support and resistance Price target projection
5. Fibonacci Time Zone
5.1 Fibonacci time zones for trend reversals
how long it take to go from low to high = 1 time unit
Fib Time Zones
- Start at the low and end at the high
- The time span of the low-high leg is defined as 1 time unit
- Calendar marks are then made at each Fib number along the time axis
5.2 Fibonacci time zone for trend reversal projection
- Start at the high and end at the low
- The time span of the high-low leg is defined as 1 time unit (0 to 1)
- Calendar marks are then made at each Fib number along the time axis
6. Takeaway
Fibonacci indicators may help provide guidance for support, resistance and price projections.
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