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【E*Tradeセミナー受講メモ】Technical Chart Analysis Part II (2021年7月14日開催)

セミナー受講メモ

E*Tradeのオンラインセミナー「Technical chart analysis, part II（2021年7月14日開催）」の受講メモです。

0.　受講したセミナー

主催：E*Trade

タイトル：「Technical chart analysis, part II」

セミナー開催日：2021年7月14日

オンラインセミナーのアドレス：https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/technical-chart-analysis-part-ii-071421

サマリー：Understanding the important information in a stock chart is valuable for an investor of any timeframe. In part two of two, we explain moving averages and the use of two popular technical indicators, MACD, and RSI.

セミナー受講メモ（単なる覚え書き）ということで英語のままになっています。2021年2月のChart Analysisに関するセミナーと重複する点がありますが、いずれまとめて日本語の記事にしていく予定です。

実際のプレゼンテーションマテリアルは、チャートを多用していますがそれらは以下に含まれていないので見づらいと思います。以下の記事でも紹介しましたが、E*TradeのセミナーはE*Tradeに口座を持っていない人でも聴講可能なので、興味のある人は実際のセミナーを聴講してみてください。

アメリカ投資入門：E*Trade主催のセミナーを使いこなす（2021年版）
テクニカル分析とオプションの勉強をし直そうと思い立ち、E*TradeのWebinarを聞き始めました。どのセミナーをどの順番で聞くべきか整理するためにリンク集を作ってみたのでシェアしたいと思います（2020年度中にも一度作りましたがほとんどがリンク切れになってしまったので新しい日程のものに入れ替えました）。いずれのセミナーもE* Tradeの口座がなくても受講可能なので、興味のある方は是非受講してみてください。また、直近のセクター別のマーケットの動きやアナリストがアップグレードした銘柄を題材にしてチャートの読み方を学びたい人は、毎週開催中のCharting the markets（毎月曜日)とStocks on the move（毎火曜日）もお勧めです。
junkurema.com
2022-03-28 00:51

1.　Over bought and sold?

Investor psychology swings between extremes of fear and greed and therefore the overall market exhibits the same

2.　Moving averages

2.1　What is a moving average?

A 10-day simple moving average (SMA)

Add the last 10 daily closing prices, divide by 10:

(P10 + P9 + P8 + P7 + P6 + P5 + P4 + P3 + P2 + P1)/10

Add next period, drop the oldest and repeat, etc.

2.2　4 ways to use simple moving average in chart analysis

(1) Identify trends – The slope of the moving average identifies current trend

(2) Look for signal when the price cross the moving average — When price crosses a moving average, a potential trend change is signaled –NOTE: Not work in sideway move (whipsawed)

(3) When use 2 moving average — If a faster moving average (eg. 50-day SMA) crosses a slower one (eg. 200-day SMA), a trend change is signaled, i.e., when 50-day SMS cross 200-SMA, or when 10-day SMS cross 50-day SMS

  • 50-200 SMA cross: Fewer signals, longer holding times
  • 10-50 SMA cross: more signals, shorter holding times

(4) Support and resistance from moving averages: Think in terms of areas, not hard and fast price points.

2.3　Other moving averages:

2.3.1　The weighted moving average

  • Gives greater weight to recent prices
  • Most recent price x 10, next x 9, and so on
  • Divide by total of weights

10-day weighted moving average = (10 x Price t-1 + 9 x Price t-2 + …. 1 x Price t-10)/ Sum of weights (=55 for 10 days)

2.3.2　Exponential moving average

  • Speeds up direction changes
  • Gives greater weight to recent prices

Exponential moving average = ((Current price previous EMA) x “Multiplier”) + Previous EMA

Multiplier = 2 / (Periods + 1)

2.4　Moving average “envelopes” will reveal relative volatility, and can be used to estimate price targets

  • A moving average envelope adds two parallel lines to a moving average, each a specified percentage above and below
  • The width of the envelope will vary from stock to stock, with high volatility stocks having wider envelopes, and vice versa

3.　Indicators & oscillators

confirmation or question price action

  • Nearly all use same price data Most tell the same story
  • Using more than one or two of these indicators is redundant!
  • We’ll look at 4 popular ones – MACD, RSI, STOCHASTIC, & OBV

3.1　MACD

Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) plots the difference between two exponential moving averages

  1. Calculate the MACD line: 12-period EMA minus 26 period EMA
  2. Calculate the Signal line: 9-period EMA of the MACD line

The MACD “historgram ” simply plots the difference between the MACD line and the signal line

When the MACD line crosses the signal line, a trend change is indicated

3.2　RSI

3.2.1　Wilder’s Relative Strength Index measures price momentum, identifies overbought and oversold conditions

Wilder’s indicator uses 14 periods — Days, weeks, months, intraday

  1. Calculate the RS Ratio = Average gain on up days / Average loss on down days
  2. Calculate RSI = 100 – 100/ (1 + RS Ratio)

over 70 (overbought) – below 30 (oversold)

3.2.2　Divergence between RSI and price trend can point to potential trend change

negative divergence = stock is losing momentum (still going up but weakening)

Divergence is a common method of analysis for these oscillating indicators

Divergence can be negative or positive
• Negative points to potentially lower prices
• Positive indicates potentially higher prices

3.3　Stochastic oscillator

Stochastic oscillator is similar to RSI it measures momentum and identifies short term price extremes

Stochastic oscillator uses 14 periods — Days, weeks, months, intraday

  1. Calculate “position in range” ((%)
    (Current close – 14 day low) / (14-day high – 14day low) x 100
  2. Plot two lines
    Fast line: 3 day average of %K
    Slow line: 3 day average of fast line

3.4　On Balance Volume

On Balance Volume is a hybrid indicator that uses both price and volume data to confirm price trends

OBV is a cumulative calculation
•The actual value is not important
• Daily, weekly, monthly, intraday

A simple algorithm
• Add volume if stock up
• Subtract if stock down

3.5　Others

Many indicators use the same data, rendering the analysis redundant, so learn one or two and save chart space!

4. Our takeaways

  • Moving averages provide an objective depiction of trend, support, resistance, and signals
  • Many calculated indicators exist to help the trader confirm or question price action
  • Topics for further study? Candlestick patterns, market breadth, investor sentiment, cycle analysis, and more