E*Tradeのオンラインセミナー「Basics of stock selection (2021年5月18日開催)」の受講メモです。投資向けの株式銘柄を選択するときの視点の説明が主目的ですが、ファンダメンタル分析とテクニカル分析の違いについて詳しく解説しています。とりあえずセミナー受講メモということで英語のままになっています。
目次
1. 受講したセミナー
2022年3月28日追記：下記のセミナーのページがリンク切れになっていることに気が付きました（リンク切れとなったページはクリックできないように修正しました）
主催：E*Trade
タイトル：「Basics of stock selection」
セミナー開催日：2021年5月18日
オンラインセミナーのアドレス：https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/basics-of-stock-selection-05182021
サマリー：Picking stocks requires diligence beyond diversified investing with mutual funds or ETFs. Learn about characteristics essential to finding quality stocks, such as profitability, growth, value, and more.
セミナー受講メモということで英語のままになっています。時間ができたときにこれらのセミナーをネタに日本語の記事にするかもしれませんが、いつになるか分かりません。まずは興味のあるセミナーをどんどん聞いてから決めていきたいと思っています。ちなみに背景がピンクになっているところは、個人的に重要（暗記したい）と思った箇所です。
以下の記事でも紹介しましたが、E*TradeのセミナーはE*Tradeに口座を持っていない人でも聴講可能なので、興味のある人は実際のセミナーを聴講してみてください。
2. Two ways to look at a stock
| Fundamental analysis | Technical analysis |
| Fundamental stock research has a long term view and focuses on… | Technical stock research can be long term or short term, and is… |
| Sales, Revenue, profit Product; competition Financial soundness Analysis of the company | All about the stock price Stock chart analysis Patterns, indicators, trend Analysis of the stock |
3. Five questions relating to Fundamental Analysis
3.1 What does the company sell?
3.1.1 （Bull Market) Sector Rotation
| First ⇒ | Next ⇒ | Finally |
| Technology Consumer discretionary Financials | Industrials Basic materials Energy | Utilities Consumer staples Health care |
| These early movers usually lead new bull markets | Cyclical stocks are highly sensitive to the economy | Defensive stocks are less sensitive to the economy |
補足：2019年8月13日開催のE*Tradeセミナー「Introduction to fundamental analysis」では、各セクターの説明として以下のテーブルが掲載されていました（このセミナーへのリンクは既にリンク切れとなっています）。
| Sectors | Example industries |
| Technology | Hardware, software, chips, networks |
| Consumer discretionary | Autos, appliances, clothing, hospitality |
| Financial | Banking, insurance, investments |
| Industrials | Machinery, aerospace, defense |
| Basic Materials | Basic Materials 2.8% Steel, mining, chemicals, paper |
| Energy | Oil and gas exploration, production, services |
| Utilities | Electricity, gas, water |
| Consumer Staples | Food, beverages, tobacco, household products |
| Communication Services | Data carriers, online services, media |
| Real estate | Commercial, residential, retail, malls |
3.1.2 Consider competitive advantage
High barriers to entry, so called “wide moats,” can give companies a strong advantage over potential competitors
- Wide moats: sources and examples
- Strong brand names: Coca Cola, Nike Inc
- Network effects: Facebook, Visa, Mastercard
- Patents & copyrights: Merck & Co, Walt Disney Co
- High capital investment: Boeing, Union Pacific Corp
- Switching costs: Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe Systems
- Cost advantages Walmart, Costco, Amazon
3.2 How big is the stock? “Market cap”
3.2.1 What is Market cap?
The market cap of a stock = stock price x total shares
- Large cap > $10B
- Mid Cap $2B – $10B
- Small Cap $300M – $2B
- Micro cap < $300M
3.2.2 Reason to care — Risk tolerance
- Larger company stocks are generally easier to research and follow
- Smaller company stocks are generally more risky
- Smaller company stocks do offer potential for high growth
3.3 Is it profitable or expected to be? Is it growing?
Check following data/numbers
- EPS (Training 12 mo.)
- Next earning date — volatile situation, extensive after hours trade –> avoid trading
- growth rate
- number of analyst
3.4 Is it expensive or cheap?
3.4.1 P/E
We compare stocks for “valuation” using various ratios.
The most basic valuation ratio is the P/E of the stock:
| P/E = Price÷ EPS (earnings per share) |
- If a $50 stock has $2 EPS, the P/E is 50 ÷ 2 = 25
- The value of $1 EPS, also called the “multiple”
- Low P/E: inexpensive, Hight P/E: Expensive
- Is a high P/E acceptable if expected growh is high?
3.4.2 PEG Ratio: Considering growth
Comparing valuation to earnings growth is a useful way to consider if a stock is expensive or cheap compared
| PEG ratio = PE/G =PE ÷ Growth rate |
- Use a “forward” PE: current price divided by future EPS estimate
- Need an estimate of potential earnings growth
- Compare to market and competitor PEG ratio
- If forward PE = 30, and expected growth rate =15%, the PEG = 2.0
- PEG of S&P = 2.0
3.5 Does it pay a dividend?
| Some kinds of companies typically pay high dividend | Others typically pay none, or only very small amounts |
| • Stocks in defensive sectors • Mature Competitive /industries (eg. Energy, Utilities, Staples, Financials) | • Rapidly growing companies • Newer, start up ventures (eg. Discretionary, Communications, Technology, Industrials) |
4. Two questions relating to Technical Analysis
4.1 How risky is the stock?
- Volatility Risk = Company risk + industry risk + market risk + regulatory risk
- Beta measures a stocks’ volatility
- Beta says how much a stock has fluctuated compared to the overall market (as measured by the S&P 500.)
- If beta is above 1.0, the stock has been more volatile; a beta below 1.0 means less volatility
4.2 Is the stock going up or down?
- Chart watchers look for price trends and seek to identify if and when a trend may be changing
- Stock charts can help in trade planning and risk management
- Use technical analysis to determine target prices, plan trade entry, and identify risk levels for exit
- Up trends have higher lows
- Previous highs present “resistance”
- “Break outs” provides trading opportunities
5. Growth, Value or GARP
5.1 Growth Stock
- Growth investors seek companies with strong growth expectations
- Sales and earnings growth
- Growth stocks usually have high PE valuation ratios
補足： 2019年8月13日開催のE*Tradeセミナー「Introduction to fundamental analysis」ではこの部分は以下のように説明していました。
• Growth investors seek successful, “high quality” companies
• Companies are expected to grow earnings faster than average
• Stocks usually have high valuation ratios (P/E, etc.)
• Investors profit from future price appreciation
• Dividends are less important
5.2 Value Stock
- Value investors seek stocks that are undervalued relative to earnings
- Reasons vary; company issues, industries out of favor, etc.
- Stocks have low PE valuations
補足： 2019年8月13日開催のE*Tradeセミナー「Introduction to fundamental analysis」ではこの部分は以下のように説明していました。
• Value investors seek stocks that are undervalued
• Price is low relative to fundamental earning power
• Stocks usually have low valuation ratios (P/E, etc.)
• Stocks (or sector) has often fallen out of favor
• Dividends are an important component of expected retu
5.3 GARP: Growth at a reasonable price
- Company expected to produce earnings growth
- Valuation is modest relative to the expected earnings growth
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I am a Japanese, residing in the US. I am trying to find a way to earn stable income at home through investments in stocks or other products as well as some sort of internet business. ▶ More detailed profile can be viewed from here.
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