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【E*Tradeセミナー受講メモ】Technical Chart Analysis Part I (2021年7月13日開催)

2021/7/28 セミナー受講メモ

E*Tradeのオンラインセミナー「Technical chart analysis, part I（2021年7月13日開催）」の受講メモです。

0.　受講したセミナー

主催：E*Trade

タイトル：「Technical chart analysis, part I」

セミナー開催日：2021年7月13日

オンラインセミナーのアドレス：https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/technical-chart-analysis-part-i-071321

サマリー：Understanding the important information in a stock chart is valuable for an investor of any timeframe. In part one of two, we explain trend analysis, support & resistance, and chart patterns.

セミナー受講メモということで英語のままになっています。Candlestick に基礎知識についても時間を割いて説明していましたが、ここでは割愛しています。2021年2月のChart Analysisに関するセミナーと重複する点がありますが、いずれまとめて日本語の記事にしていく予定です。

実際のプレゼンテーションマテリアルは、チャートを多用していますがそれらは以下に含まれていないので見づらいと思います。以下の記事でも紹介しましたが、E*TradeのセミナーはE*Tradeに口座を持っていない人でも聴講可能なので、興味のある人は実際のセミナーを聴講してみてください。

アメリカ投資入門：E*Trade主催のセミナーを使いこなす（2021年版）
テクニカル分析とオプションの勉強をし直そうと思い立ち、E*TradeのWebinarを聞き始めました。どのセミナーをどの順番で聞くべきか整理するためにリンク集を作ってみたのでシェアしたいと思います（2020年度中にも一度作りましたがほとんどがリンク切れになってしまったので新しい日程のものに入れ替えました）。いずれのセミナーもE* Tradeの口座がなくても受講可能なので、興味のある方は是非受講してみてください。また、直近のセクター別のマーケットの動きやアナリストがアップグレードした銘柄を題材にしてチャートの読み方を学びたい人は、毎週開催中のCharting the markets（毎月曜日)とStocks on the move（毎火曜日）もお勧めです。
junkurema.com
2022-03-28 00:51

1.　Why study charts?

1.1　Reasons to care

  • Price is now
  • Price is unambiguous
  • Charts can identify logical price targets
  • Charts are a vital tool in risk management

1.2　Investor psychology swings between extremes of fear and greed and therefore the overall market exhibits the same

Optimism –> Excitement –> Thrill –> Euphoria –> Anxiety –> Denial –> Fear –> Desperation –> Panic –> Capitulation –> Despondency –> Depression –> Hope –> Relief –> Optimism

2.　How it began

2.1　Chartists believe there are patterns in price behavior that can be identified and profitably traded

  • It started with Charles Dow, 1851- 1902
    • 1882 forms Dow Jones & Company
    • 1883 publishes daily market letter on Wall Street
    • 1889 first edition of Wall Street Journal
    • 1896 devises the Dow Jones Industrial Average

2.2 　Dow’s theories were developed in his writing for the Wall Street Journal

  • Price discounts everything
    • Markets are forward looking
    • Price reflects all information
  • The indexes must confirm — Dow theory
    • The industrials and the railroads — both are move together
    • Manufacturers and shippers
  • Volume should confirm price
    • Higher prices with higher volume
  • Uptrends and downtrends
    • Up: higher lows and higher highs
    • Down: lower highs and lower lows
  • Three trends
    • The primary trend is long term
    • Secondary and minor trends within
  • Stages of a primary uptrend
    • Accumulation –> participation –> distribution

2.3　Three trends: The primary trend is long term; secondary and minor trends can be with or counter to primary trend

You will decide which trend to use

2.4　1948: Edwards and McGee expand technical trading with vast catalog of chart patterns and analysis

  1. Stock prices move in trends, so identify your current trend
    • There are long term trends and short term trends
    • Price trends result from the relative motivation of buyers (demand) and sellers (supply)
    • Motivation to buy or sell is driven by both rational and irrational investor actions
  2. Trends change direction, so determine when it does
    • A trend will eventually reverse when the motivation of sellers and buyers shift
    • Chart analysis can help the trader see when supply and demand is shifting
    • Chart patterns reversals or continuations tend to repeat themselves

3.　Chart types

3.1　Line charts: The most basic price history plots only the closing price daily, weekly, monthly, and intraday

3.2　Mountain charts depict same closing price information as line charts, just with some added color

3.3　Bar charts plot the opening price, the high and low, and closing price for the period; sometimes called “OHLC”

  • Green bars; stock was up for the period
  • Red bars; stock was down for the period
  • Volume: Number of shares traded for the period

3.4　Candle charts also plot the open, high, low, and close, but the color of the candle is determined differently

  • Red candle: Stock closed lower than the open
  • Green volume: Stock was up for the day

4.　The trend is your friend

4.1　Previous highs and lows are important and assumed to introduce support, resistance, and potential targets

  • Resistance: Price retreats from previous high(s)
  • Support: Price bounces off previous low(s)

4.2　When price breaks through support or resistance a trend move is signaled

Breaking through resistance is bullish, implying higher prices

What next? [test for a re
a) Stock continues higher
b) Pulls back, “tests” the breakout, goes higher => entry signal for traders
c) Falls below break, reverses lower
d) Yes, patterns sometimes fail! WARNING!

4.3　Uptrends have higher lows and higher highs, and a trendline across the lows is expected to provide support

Draw uptrend line across lows Use ‘best fit’

4.4　Downtrends have lower highs and lower lows, and a trendline across the highs is expected resistance

Draw downtrend line across highs use best fit

4.5　Breaking trendline resistance signals a potential reversal to the upside, technical traders then look for higher low

  • Downtrend resistance in place –> pay attention if the price go across the trend line
  • If stock breaks across trendline –> first potential signal for the uptrend, but still wait to see
  • When stock pulls back, see if the higher low is above the trend line makes higher low?
  • In Uptrend see the higher high is clear the previous higher high. => that confirm the beginning of the uptrend untill proven wrong

5.　Classic chart patterns

5.1　Double Bottom

  1. Stock holds twice in same area after a downtrend
  2. Stock breaks above secondary high

What next?
a) Stock continues higher
b) Pulls back, bounces higher
c) Falls below break, turns higher
d) Pattern fails, downtrend resumes

==> give the price target

5.2　Double Top

  1. Stock declines twice in same area after an uptrend
  2. Stock breaks below secondary low

What next?
a) Stock continues lower
b) Pulls back, goes lower
c) Rises above break, trends lower
d) Pattern fails, uptrend resumes

5.3　Head and Shoulders

  1. Stock makes three highs; middle peak is higher than the “shoulders”
  2. Intermediate lows identify the “neckline” of the pattern
  3. Stock breaks neckline, signals lower prices
  4. Does price continue lower, or pop back to resistance at neck?
  5. Height of the pattern defines a potential target price

5.4　Inverse Head and Shoulders

  1. Stock makes three lows; middle trough is lower than the “shoulders”
  2. Intermediate highs identify the “neckline” of the pattern
  3. Stock breaks neckline, signals higher prices
  4. Does price continue higher, or pull back to support at neck?
  5. Height of the pattern defines a potential target price

5.5　Rectangle Base

  1. Stock bouncing between support and resistance
  2. Stock breaks overhead resistance
  3. Does stock pull back to the breakout and hold above?
  4. May see a shortfall to support before the breakout

5.6　Triangles and Wedges

  1. Stock making higher lows and lower highs — battle between uptrend and downtrend
  2. Stock breaks out of triangle to upside
  3. Does stock pull back to the breakout and hold above?
  4. Height of triangle base points to potential price target

NOTE: Expectation is stock will not reach to the end of trialgle, but somewhere the second half of the triangle

NOTE: When you see small triangles (pennant, falg ) apply small tume frame use flag pole for price taraget

5.7　Cup with Handle

  1. After clear up trend, stock forms wide, rounded consolidation base; this is the “cup”
  2. The handle is tighter, shallower consolidation
  3. When stock breaks above the high of the handle a buy signal is generated