E*Tradeのオンラインセミナー「Trade Strategy」シリーズ（全3回）（2021年6月16日～6月17日）の受講メモです。「第1回目：Planning a trade」、「第2回目：Opening a trade」および「第3回目：Protecting a trade (Risk Management)」が各回のテーマでした。とりあえずセミナー受講メモということで英語のままになっています。
目次
0. 受講したセミナー
2022年3月28日追記：下記のセミナーのページがリンク切れになっていることに気が付きました（リンク切れとなったページはクリックできないように修正しました）
主催：E*Trade
タイトル・セミナー開催日・オンラインセミナーサイトのアドレス:
Trading strategy 1: Planning a trade（2021年6月16日）
(https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/trading-strategy-1-planning-a-trade-06162021)
Trading strategy 2: Opening a trade（2021年6月16日）
(https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/trading-strategy-2-06162021)
Trading strategy 3: Protecting a trade（2021年6月17日）
(https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/trading-strategy-3-06172021)
セミナー受講メモということで英語のままになっています。時間ができたときにこれらのセミナーをネタに日本語の記事にするかもしれません。まずは興味のあるセミナーをどんどん聞いてから決めていきたいと思っています。ちなみに背景がピンクになっているところは、個人的に重要と思った箇所です。
以下の記事でも紹介しましたが、E*TradeのセミナーはE*Tradeに口座を持っていない人でも聴講可能なので、興味のある人は実際のセミナーを聴講してみてください。
1. Trade Strategy 1: Planning a Trade
1.1 Before you begin
- Keep it simple
- change as necessary
- Be realistic with goals and expectations
- Identify our starting point
1.2 Goal and objectives
- what is your time horizon?
- Set specific goals
- Identify your risk tolerance
1.3 Markets and products
- Stocks: price, sector, fundamentals, technical
- Derivatives: Options and Futures
- Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
- Cash: stability, opportunity
1.4 Trade setup and execution
- Fundamental and technical criteria (eg. Institutional ownership over 60%, )
Note – need to know next earning date (because stock movement becomes volatile) - Clear risk management parameters — ask 3 questions — make them identify and document them
(1) why are you taking that trade? why are you going to buy that stock? — your reason for getting into the position will give you the basis for the reasons for getting out.
(2) What do you expect from this trade? (eg. analyst target price)
(3) What will cause you to get out of the trade? You have to identify the exit point. - Define order types and contingencies — market, limit, trailing, etc. learn about them
- Drawdown limits — drawdown = how low did that stock go even though you did not close out.
$100 -> $5 -> $101 (not impressive) - Price targets
- Exit strategies – legging (slowly reduce market exposure), trailing stops, conditional
- orders
1.5 Trade Diary
We tend to remember only goods and forget the bad, but bad is better teacher.
- What did you do? (buy/sell, product, date, price, etc.)
- Record market conditions
- Record your conditions
- Keep charts and research
- Adjust your strategy incrementally
- Learn from your winners and losers
1.6 Takeaway
Trade with a plan to help you stay focused and disciplined.
2. Trade Strategy 2: Opening a Trade
GOAL: Discover how to use screens and charts to find and time your entry into a trade
2.1 Stock Selection Factors
| Fundamental — look company | Technical — look stock |
| Growth Valuation Dividends Market capitalization Sector and industry | Trend direction Moving averages Relative performance Volatility Volume |
2.2 Candlestick Chart Basics
Difference between Green and red
top shadow and bottom shadow
closing price and beginning price
2.3 Pivot Point Entry
(1) Uptrend = any period that has “higher high” and “Higher low”
(2) find support line – ay price floor
take a straight line, capture bottom price as much s possible
it is imperative that the body is above support, it is optional that shadow below the support
Pivot = signal for entry, circle , long red followed by long green, this green give us a pivot , if trade before green is anticipating pivot- stock breaking down further
参考：Investopedia: Pivot, Investopedia: Pivot Point, Investopedia: Using Pivot Points for Predictions
2.4 Moving Average Pivot
2.4.1 Uptrend Pivot
using closing price
50 simple moving average = sum of closing price of recent 50 days divided by 50, smother than actual price itself
in uptrend, the moving average will be below the stock itself
Moving average itself act as a support line
2.4.2 Moving Average Pivot
- 50-day simple moving average (SMA) uptrend
- Green candle pivot – entry point in the presentation material = 5th line in the circle, or 7th line
- Protect against price falling below 50-day SMA
2.4.3 Market Order vs Limit Order
- Market Order (guarantees execution, but not price)
- Limit order (Guarantees price, but not execution)
2.4.4 Legging into a position
buy at a pull back , do the same thing in the exit
2.5 Example MSFT
• 500 shares = $50,000
• Max loss = $50,000
• Max profit = unlimited
• MSFT increases to $110
• Position increases $5,000 or 10%
• Protect against falling price — $97 initial stop
• Entire or partial position
• Raise sell stop price as stock rises — trailing stop
参考：Investopedia: Trailing Stop Definition and Uses
2.6 Takeaway
Use the screening and charting tools to choose your trade and entry.
3. Trade Strategy 3: Risk Management
- bad trader- focus on profits
- good trader – focus on risk
3.1 Why Manage you Risk
＜Risk Management＞
- Moves you from emotion to discipline
- Allows for more losses — small loss, avoid catastrophic loss (wipe all losses)
- Requires an understanding of technical analysis
- Starts with stock selection
- Is non-negotiable — need every single time you trade
3.2 Risk and Loss
| Gain scenario | A. $700 B. 80% chance of $1,000 | Expected A. $700 gain <- risk aversion B. $800 gain |
| Loss Scenario | A. $700 B. 80% chance of $1,000 | Expected A. $700 loss B. $800 loss <- loss aversion |
<Risk Aversion>
Risk Aversion = The tendency to accept a known lower payout than a higher expected payout with uncertainty.
Is a bird in the hand worth two in the bush? What if the probability of getting two birds is very high?
Bought at $75 –> $76 “Sell!”
<Loss Aversion>
Loss Aversion = The tendency to gamble with a loss in order to avoid it – even with a higher expected loss
“If I lock in the loss now, I’ll never have the chance to recover my loss”
Generally, people prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains: it is better to not lose $5 than to find $5
Bought at $75 –> $74 “Let’s wait and see!”
3.3 Fallacy of Fairness
<The Ultimatum Game>
- Split $10 (except $10/$0)
- Accept or reject
- Non-reciprocation – game over
5 for me 5 for you
3 for me 7 for you
9 for me 1 for you
8 for me 2 for you
6 for me 4 for you
Everything is benefit you (free money), why not receive?
Because that’s not fair. <– We do all the time in the market.
3.4 Position Sizing
<Calculating Position Size>
| Step 1. What is your maximum dollar risk per trade | Account size: Maximum % loss per trade: Maximum $ loss per trade: | $50,000 2% $1,000 |
| Step 2. What is the risk per share in your trade set-up? | Entry Price: Stop loss price: Risk per share: | $43.80 $40.75 $3.05 |
| Step 3. Position size is your maximum dollar risk ÷ risk per share | Max $ loss per trade: Risk per share in set-up: Maximum shares: | $1,000 $3.05 1,000 ÷ 3.05= 328 |
| Step 1. What is your maximum dollar risk per trade | Account size: Maximum % loss per trade: Maximum $ loss per trade: | $50,000 2% $1,000 |
| Step 2. What is the risk per share in your trade set-up? | Entry Price: Stop loss price: Risk per share: | $43.80 $42.50* $1.30 |
| Step 3. Position size is your maximum dollar risk ÷ risk per share | Max $ loss per trade: Risk per share in set-up: Maximum shares: | $1,000 $3.05 1,000 ÷ 1.30= 769 |
3.5 Takeaway:
Your mind may often be your biggest obstacle to success. Practice mental and trading discipline every time.
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